The Housing Bubble

Sitting in front of my computer wearing... not much at all... and half sedated from Tylenol 3 because of this damn Bronchitis, I felt an urge to give my $0.02 + tax on the current housing market.

First, a quick idea of what I do. I create budgets for condominiums that are being just built or are being converted from apartment buildings. Being in the housing market, and having networked with developers, escrow officers, salespeople, and deputies at the Department of Real Estate, I get a rare glimpse at the chaos that ensues.

Developers are selling 600 sqft condo units in San Diego for nearly half a million. Crazy? How about the fact that these units are sold months, sometimes years before the condos are built? The bubble is definitely at full throttle.

The burning question, of course, is "when will it end?" While no one can say for sure, I do know that there are some very prominent and powerful people that are betting on at least a 5 year run. If you recall from my previous posts, I predicted a 2 year run before things start going downhill. We are already about 10 years into this bubble, which makes another 5 years extremely improbable.

But it can happen, and here's why: The key factor in housing is interest rates. Who controls these rates? The Federal Reserve. It seems there are some people with close ties to Mr. Greenspan, and are confident enough in that relationship that they are betting 5 years out.

My advice? Wait if you can. It will end, sooner or later, and if you can afford to wait and buy when everyone else is selling, then you can make yourself a very nice pile of greenery.



Ok, I can't think anymore. All the coughing and drugs are making me feel like this:

I Want To Be President

I want to be the President of the United States. No, I'm not kidding. I seriously do want to be President. Will it ever happen? Highly unlikely. Not only would it require an amendment to the Constitution (since I am not a natural born citizen) but it would also require me to lose all feelings of being human and caring for others, which I am never willing to forego.

The government in this country amazes me. The entire system is an outrage. You go to prison for life if you commit a felony three times in California, yet nothing happens to you if you lie to an entire nation and cause the deaths of tens of thousands of people (antiwar.com). Report after report confirms that President had intent to invade Iraq before the events of September 11, 2001, that our reasons for the war were completely unjustified, and that private corporations with a large interest in Iraqi oil played a huge role in the decision made by the White House.

Yet nothing happens.

The only regions of the nation that seem to give a damn are the west and east coasts. Middle America is completely naive to the events of the world. The rednecks are blind Republicans, and will vote Republican no matter who is running under that party. It's more than absurd, it's sad. It's disappointing.

The greatest nation on Earth has become the most corrupt. There is no responsibility, there is no accountability. If we attacked Iran tomorrow, no one could stop us. We control the entire world, and decide to use this unheard of power for the personal benefit of the few.

Prior to the Iraqi War, calls for increases in funding to educational and housing programs were answered with the sympathetic "we just don't have enough money to fund such wonderful programs. We're doing our best." Then we invaded Iraq. Suddenly, hundreds of billions of dollars were available for an unjust war. Where did this money come from? Why couldn't we have spent 1/10 of that in the 10 years before that? Iraq has cost us over $177 billion (costofwar.com), and the cost continues to rise, with no end in sight.

Checks and balances have obviously not worked. With a Republican controlled White House, Senate, and Congress, there is no one to stop the President. He should be more than impeached, he should be shot and fed to dogs. Damn him for causing the deaths of so many soldiers and civilians.

That's why I want to be President. To show that there is an American that cares. If elected, it will only be for four years. They would never allow someone with a non selfish agenda to even get elected, much less re-elected. I may not be a natural born citizen, but I am a citizen, and I bet I care more about this country than most others.

Review: 2001: A Space Odyssey

If the mind shatteringly annoying music doesn't pierce your eardrums and cause you to become a madman, the boredom of the movie definitely will make you consider suicide as a less painful alternative.

I had heard so much about this movie, and always wanted to see it. Disappointing doesn't begin to describe it. I'd like to see how anyone can defend this movie as being anything but the MOST annoying movie I've EVER seen. All you really think about throughout the movie is, "when will it end?!?!?!?!" It was more of a test of endurance than anything else.

I read reviews and they said it was the most terrifying movie they have every seen. It had the most meaning. What? Did I miss something in the 2 and a half hours of complete stupidity?

Six Steps for Making Your Threat Credible

"In the classic game of Chicken, two drivers on a crash course speed toward each other. The rules are simple: Whoever swerves first and avoids collision loses, and whoever is brave enough to stay the course wins. Of course, when both drivers stay the course, they collide and die. Clearly, this is not a game for the faint-hearted. But bravado alone doesn't guarantee a win. Your opponent has to believe that you're gutsy enough to stay the course, or he may do the same until the very end. How do you win at Chicken? One approach would be to talk tough beforehand. You might behave irrationally to suggest that you wouldn't swerve even to save your life. Once the game begins, however, your threat simply may not be credible.

Now consider this strategy: Once the cars are headed directly toward each other, you unscrew your steering wheel and throw it out the window, making sure that your opponent sees you do it. Foolish? So it would seem, but your threat is now entirely credible. You can't change course even if you wanted to. It's up to your opponent to decide whether to lose the game or die. The odds are in your favor."

Link

Jury Duty

Here I am sitting at the "Internet Access Kiosk #2" at the Los Angeles Superior Court. Yes, they got me. I have the "honor" of having jury duty. I hope I don't get put on a jury for a trial. These people think that I have nothing better to do my entire week than listen to a civil case! If it was criminal, I would understand, but a CIVIL case? Don't insult my intelligence!

While I'm annoyed, I shall tell you what happened the other day on the freeway. It's 11:40 PM on a Sunday night. I am driving northbound on the 5 freeway. For 25 miles we were going at 30MPH. A big accident? Multiple lane closures? Alien landing? No no. Have you guys seen the new "CLICK IT OR TICKET" signs on the freeway? Yes, that caused all the traffic. Every stupid moron had to slow down to read it. The stupidity of humanity is mind boggling. How can drivers be so STUPID?!?!?

HAHAHHAHAH ok my mood just changed. The guy was calling names for jurors and the first person called the guy yells out "HERE!" from the bathroom.

These are the things keeping me alive right now. Amazing, isn't it?

Apparently, I'm not the only one blogging about jury duty. The Internet Explorer here has the history of the last 12 entries, all of them starting with "Jury Duty" (and one starting with "UGH! UGH!")



Aside from all that, I miss my friends, however many of them are left. I haven't seen anyone for months, mainly due to my 80 hour work weeks. Are you people still alive?


It's June. Half the year is almost over. All I heard was a WHOOSH!